Karnataka Reservation Issue: After recording a historic victory in the Gujarat assembly elections, the BJP is now committed to the mission of strengthening its position in South India. Because of this, BJP is challenged to retain power in Karnataka. But in the recent past, BJP in Karnataka seems to be stuck in a new kind of cycle. This Chakravyuh is related to the Lingayat community reserve. If the BJP does not strategize to break this cycle soon, then the road back to power may be rocky for it.

There is not much time left in the Karnataka assembly elections. The term of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly ends on 24 May 2023. In such a situation, elections can be held here in April-May. With the elections approaching, the demand to increase the reservation from different communities of Karnataka is increasing. The biggest challenge for the BJP is to find a solution to the demand of the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities to increase the reserve.

Mounting pressure on the Karnataka government

People from Lingayat community in Karnataka demand to increase the reserve to 15%. There is currently a 5 percent reserve for Lingayats in Karnataka. As such, there is already a demand to increase its reserve, but in view of the elections, organizations associated with this community have started putting pressure on the BJP leader and Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. The demand of the Lingayat community is that they be included in the category 2A of the OBC reserve. This will pave the way for a 15% reserve for them. Currently, lingayats get a 5 percent reserve in category 3B.

Panchamasali Lingayat not ready to back down

To put pressure on the government and the BJP, on December 22, more than one lakh Panchamasali Lingayats demonstrated in Belagavi, Karnataka, demanding an increase in the reserve. Organizations associated with this community have given a clear warning that if the government does not heed their demands, then the BJP will have to be prepared to face losses in the elections. This demonstration was held during the winter session of the Karnataka Legislative Assembly in Belagavi. Saints associated with the Lingayat community say the Chief Minister had promised to make an announcement on the reserve increase by December 19. If this does not happen, the people of this community have taken to the streets.

BJP MLA Basan Gowda Patil pressure

The demand to increase the reserve of Panchamasali Lingayats is being led by Saint Basava Jaya Mrityunjaya Swamy of Kudalasangam Panchamasali Peetha in Bagalkot district of Karnataka. Concern for the BJP is also heightened by the fact that its own Vijaypur MLA, Basan Gowda Patil Yatnal, has been running this Lingayats campaign for a long time. He has already spoken out against the party leader, BS Yeddyurappa, and the current Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. Organizations associated with the Lingayat community say they have become merely a vote bank for the BJP. The BJP government is reluctant to give the Lingayat community representation based on their population in jobs.

Many legislators and ministers also support the lawsuit.

Owing to 18 percent of Karnataka’s population, the Lingayat community is a huge vote bank for all parties. Traditionally, the BJP base is considered very good in the Lingayat community. If the BJP wants Karnataka to become as strong a political stronghold as Gujarat, then it will have to further strengthen its hold among the Lingayat community. This is a new challenge for Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, who is already fighting on many fronts. Many BJP MLAs and ministers from the Lingayat community also support this demand.

Yeddyurappa’s hold on Lingayat community strengthened

With this attitude of the Panchamasali Lingayats, the crisis has escalated for both the BJP and Chief Minister Bommai. Basavaraj Bommai is already preoccupied with challenging differences with former Chief Minister and BJP veteran BS Yeddyurappa. Yediyurappa’s hold on the Lingayat community is considered very strong. Now dealing with the pressure from the biggest group, the Lingayat community, is becoming more difficult for Bommai. However, to pacify the matter, Chief Minister Bommai has assured the saints in the Panchamasali community that the government will soon make a decision on this matter, which will be favorable to all.

How difficult will it be to increase the reserve?

It is not so easy for BJP to meet the demand to increase the reserve of the Lingayat community before the elections. If Chief Minister Bommai makes such a decision, which increases the reservation for the people of the Lingayat community, then a new challenge may arise in front of him to help the voters of other communities. The Vokkaliga community has also been calling for a long time to increase the pool from 4 to 12%. From this, it can be inferred that before taking any decision related to increasing the reserve of the Lingayat community for Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai, the demand of the Vokkaliga community should also be considered.

Reserve has increased for SC and ST

In October this year, the Karnataka government decided to increase the reservation of Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) in government posts and educational institutions. The reserve for SC was increased from 15% to 17% through the ordinance. At the same time, the ST pool was increased from 3% to 7%. Karnataka already has a 32% reserve for OBC. By increasing the reserve for SC and ST, the Karnataka government has crossed the 50 per cent limit set by the Supreme Court. In such a situation, it will not be easy for the Bommai government to increase the reserve for the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities.

OBC Reserve Mathematics in Karnataka

In Karnataka, 32 percent of the reserve is for OBC. There are many categories in this. There is a 4% reserve for backward castes belonging to category 1, 15% for OBC belonging to category 2A and 4% for Muslims belonging to category 2B. There is a 4% reserve in Category 3A for Vokkaligas and 5% in Category 3B for Lingayats. Lingayats are required to be listed in category 2A.

Panchamasali Lingayats dominate

Lingayats make up 18 percent of Karnataka’s population. This community, which belongs to the Hindu religion, is also called Veerashaiva Lingayat. He is a follower of the 12th century philosopher and social reformer Basavanna. Basavanna started a movement to break the chains of the caste system. Many influential leaders of the state belong to the Lingayat community, including former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa and current Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai. There are more than 100 sub-communities in the Lingayat community. The population of Panchamasali Lingayats is the highest among them. Panchamasali is about 70 percent of the total population of the Lingayat community. The Panchamasali Lingayats require that they be granted a reservation in Category 2A. By virtue of this, at present, a 15% reserve is being granted to classes that are in arrears. Apart from this, the Lingayat community also demands to be listed on the Central Government’s OBC list, so that they can also get the benefit of the 27 percent reserve for OBC in central jobs and educational institutions. However, in view of the assembly elections, currently their demand is more for Karnataka.

Lingayat can ruin BJP’s game

Out of the total 224 seats in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly, the votes of this community prove to be very decisive in around 100 seats. Of these, it commands 62 seats in North Karnataka. Last time BJP won 40 of these 62 seats. BJP won 11 more seats in these areas than in 2013. Despite being from the Lingayat community, Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai’s control is not as strong as BS Yeddyurappa’s. If BJP fails to help the lingayats, then Congress can get their direct benefit. Until around 1990, the Lingayat people used to be supporters of Congress only. Congress has been committed for the past few years to earning the trust of the people of this community. Senior Congress Leader and former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah also made a big bet in March 2019 to strengthen party control in this community. He had also written a letter to the Central Government to grant minority status to the Lingayat community as a separate religion. However, the central government refused to do so.

The way forward for Chief Minister Bommai

On December 22, Jayaprakash Hegde, Chairman of the Karnataka Backward Classes Standing Commission, submitted an interim report to Chief Minister Bommai on the matter related to the reservation of backward classes. This report was eagerly awaited as many communities under the OBC in Karnataka are demanding an increase in the reserve. The report of the Commission comes on the same day that the padyatra is removed from the Panchamasali Lingayats in Belagavi. In view of the elections, the commission’s report is very important to pacify this community. Only after this report did the hope arise that Chief Minister Bommai can make a decision on the demand to increase the reserve soon after speaking with the top BJP leaders. However, it will not be so easy for him to make a decision in favor of only Panchamasali Lingayats considering the voices raised from many other communities.

Annoying Vokkaliga can be expensive

Vokkaligas are the largest community in Karnataka after Lingayats. They make up 16 percent of the state’s population. These are considered traditional supporters of JDS. Vokkaliga community voters dominate in southern Karnataka districts such as Mandya, Hassan, Mysore, Bengaluru (rural), Tumkur, Chikballapur, Kolar and Chikmagalur. All these areas belong to the former Mysore region. The people of the Vokkaliga community have also intensified their demand to increase the reserve. They currently have a 4 percent reserve in Category 3A. The Vokkaligas demand to increase the reserve from 4 to 12%. For this, the deadline has been maintained on January 23, 2023 in front of the Government. Karnataka State Congress Chairman DK Shivakumar hails from this community and has been warning repeatedly to intensify the movement related to the demand to increase reserves for the community from him. Many Saints and MLAs in this community have submitted memos related to this to the state government.

BJP targets former Mysore region

The Vokkaliga community is very special in terms of 89 seats in the former Mysore region. Last time BJP won only 22 of these seats. Congress won 32 and JDS won 31 seats. BJP would like to win more seats in these areas in the 2023 elections. Only then can the BJP easily succeed in forming the government. In such a situation, BJP cannot buy the discontent of this community.

Before taking any decision on increasing the reserve, BJP will have to solve the equations for the Lingayat and Vokkaliga communities. If BJP is able to do this, it will be easier to defeat their opponents in the Karnataka political battle.

Also read this: Karnataka: Will BJP be able to make Karnataka a stronghold, challenge to repeat Lok Sabha performance, know the equation?