Pune, Mumbai India’s Meteorological Department released a reassuring forecast for the June-September monsoon season on Tuesday (May 31). However, monsoon rains have pummeled the Arabian Sea as far as Kerala, and the weather department’s forecast for more travel has been questioned by private meteorologist and forecast company Skymet.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) rushed to the scene to announce the monsoon forecast and clarify the monsoon conditions. Therefore, the general public is more likely to be confused about whether the rains that will fall this year are pre-monsoon or monsoon.
The meteorological department had released its long-term forecast for the monsoon season on April 14. According to the forecast, the country will receive 99 percent more rain than the national average. However, considering the current weather conditions and temperature in the Indian subcontinent, the rain forecast was raised to 103 percent on Tuesday. It is also expected to be plus or minus four percent. The long-term average rainfall in India from 1971 to 2020 is 87 cm. The country will receive 103 percent more rain in the four months of the monsoon season than this average. The meteorological department also said precipitation will be above average in scattered coastal areas including Mumbai, Thane, Pune, Nashik, northwestern Maharashtra and Aurangabad, Beed, Marathwada and some Vidarbha districts.
Most of Maharashtra is expected to receive above average rainfall in four months. Except for some parts of Mumbai area, rains will be normal in East Vidarbha including Konkan and coastal areas. However, northern Maharashtra, western Maharashtra as well as most of Marathwada and three to four districts of Vidarbha are expected to receive above average rainfall. The country will receive normal to above normal rainfall in central India and the south. There will be normal rainfall in North East India and West India. However, the northeastern states of Mizoram, Tripura and Manipur have received below-average rainfall this year, according to the meteorological department.
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The India Meteorological Department has denied allegations of non-compliance with the rain forecast. Last week, however, the weather department had to announce the good news that the rains advanced much earlier this year and then the advance of the rains stopped. This raises questions about the weather forecast.
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