Parimala Maya Sudhakar

Although the US President’s statement on Taiwan is a step in that direction, What are the chances of China taking action against Taiwan??

U.S. President Joseph Biden said in Japan on May 24 that the U.S. military was determined to oppose any attempt by China to gain control of Taiwan. Two questions are important in this context. One is how far the possibility of a Chinese military attack on Taiwan will decrease; And two, is the United States really committed to defending Taiwan in such a case?

Currently, China is once again gripped by the corona epidemic. Most importantly, the five-year convention of the ruling Communist Party of China (Congress) will be held this year. This includes, among other things, the election of Chinese President Xi Jinping as party secretary general (alternatively Chinese president) for the third consecutive year. It is clear that ginny tails and their chimpanzees do not interfere with this process.

China is not in a hurry for a political merger with mainland Taiwan. By 2049, a century before the Chinese Socialist Revolution, China hopes to get rid of this bitter force without using force. By then China will have fully developed into an economic and military superpower. However, the Chinese government has repeatedly stated that China will take military action if Taiwan tries to violate its sanctions. The official role of the Taiwanese government is to coordinate the mainland of China and the island of Taiwan. However, they do not accept Communist Party political rule. For the past 72 years, the Taiwanese government has consistently hoped that the Chinese communist regime will overthrow the Chinese people. However, the new generation in Taiwan is leaning towards the independence of the island of Taiwan. If the demand for a declaration of independence in Taiwan intensifies and it has the support of large countries, China will definitely intervene militarily without having to wait for an official decision to declare the island of Taiwan (other than China’s mainland) sovereign!

Biden has pledged that the United States is committed to protecting Taiwan in the event of an incident. However, the United States acknowledged the role of the Chinese and Taiwanese governments from the outset, with the mainland China and Taiwan being part of a single sovereign state. However, from 1949 to 1979, the United States claimed that the real representative government of Sovereign China was the Kuomintang government on the island of Taiwan. China, which became an ally in World War II, was officially ruled by the Kuomintang party. China has also been granted permanent membership in the newly formed United Nations Security Council. However, with the success of the Communist Party revolution in 1949, Kuomintang was transformed into China (officially the Republic of China) into Socialist China (officially the People’s Republic of China). In this situation, the Kuomintang government fled to Taiwan and settled there, and the anti-socialist countries of the world insisted that the Taiwanese government was the real representative of China. In 1971, the United States changed its role, removing the Taiwan-based Komtong government from the Security Council and recognizing Mao’s permanent membership in China. In 1979, the United States formally established diplomatic relations with the Communist Party of China (CPC) government and revoked the recognition of the Taiwanese government for its insistence on China’s “one-China policy”. In doing so, the US Congress enacted the Taiwan Relations Act, 1979, to ensure that Taiwan does not become isolated in the future and that China does not forcibly annex Taiwan. Accordingly, it is proposed to continue the process of enhancing cooperation with Taiwan in all areas of trade, arms supply and public relations. For the past 33 years, the United States has provided Taiwan with state-of-the-art weapons under the provisions of law and has sought to keep the Taiwanese military (self defense force) on par with China. But before 1979, the United States was ready for war against Communist China’s efforts on Taiwan, and the United States gave Taiwan such a promise. Since 1979, the United States has deliberately pursued “strategic ambiguity”. However, the United States Taiwan Relations Act, 1979 gave Taiwan six promises to complete. The promises made in 1982 were approved by the US Congress in 2016. These six promises are: (1) The United States will not automatically impose a time limit on itself to stop arms sales to Taiwan. (2) The United States does not amend the Taiwan Relations Act. (3) The United States will not consult Communist China on this issue before selling arms to Taiwan. (4) The United States does not mediate between Taiwan and China. (5) The United States will not pressure the Taiwanese government to negotiate with Taiwan on its future. (6) The United States does not officially recognize Communist China’s dominance over Taiwan.

Will Biden leave ambiguity?

Resolution Although not committed to the US administration or the President, all US Presidents since 1982 have complied with the Taiwan Relations Act, 1979 and the Six Promises. Joseph Biden reiterated this in his statement in Japan. But the 1979 law or the Six Promises did not guarantee that the United States would go to war with China to defend Taiwan if necessary. The United States is committed to maintaining its military presence in the event of a military attack on NATO member states or countries that have military alliances with the United States, such as Japan, South Korea and Australia. However, the United States deliberately maintained “strategic ambiguity” regarding Taiwan. It seems that the current President of the United States is thinking of ending this dilemma.

President Biden has put Taiwan at the forefront of his Indo-Pacific policy. After months of negotiations and reconsideration, the Indo-Pacific Strategy, issued by the White House in February 2022, articulated against its allies and allies in the Indo-Pacific region during the military invasion of the United States. Including a possible military invasion of the Taiwan Strait (via Communist China) – he will be given the appropriate answer. The policy has two main themes: (1) the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the question of US credibility raised by US non-military intervention against the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. (2) changes in US foreign policy in 2016 and 2020 by Donald Trump.

On the one hand, Biden seeks to strengthen NATO against Russia, and on the other, he seeks to build an alliance between China and the countries participating in the Quad and Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) against China. However, there are three main obstacles to the military conflict between Taiwan and China. On the one hand, Biden is under tremendous pressure with selfish interests in pursuing trade with China. Biden has no political will to ignore the fact that this lobby has backed the Democratic Party against Trump in the presidential election. Another problem is that China is not currently interested in a military confrontation with Taiwan. The third and most important problem is the difficult situation in Taiwan itself! Taiwan’s largest trade is with China, with the United States being its second largest trading partner. Taiwan’s trade with Communist China and its exports more than double its trade with the United States. To reduce the Indo-Pacific trade dependence on China, the United States did not include Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework of 13 countries, including India. Moreover, Biden himself made it clear that there was no change in the US ‘one-China policy’. In such a scenario, Taiwan would not be able to take steps to declare itself sovereign, without which it would be impossible for China to use its military power. Overall, although Biden indicated his readiness to take over the defense of Taiwan, he was unlikely to do so (to provoke a Sino-Taiwan dispute). Therefore, without these differences, the biden bar would need to be raised to restore US strategic dominance in the Indo-Pacific region.

Author MIT School of Government, Pune Parimalamayasudhakar works in gmail. com